Population Puzzle in the Pearl of the Orient

Hong Kong’s proposed Northern Metropolis project aims to house 2.5 million residents and provide 650,000 jobs. However, the numbers themselves are not the story. The real challenge lies in planning for a population that will live, work, and study across the border with Shenzhen.

Hong Kong’s demographic profile is undergoing a significant shift. Fertility rates have plummeted to 0.7-0.8 births per woman, while residents aged 65+ now account for nearly a quarter of the population. The number of working-age individuals has declined by over 16% in just seven years, from 1.747 million in 2018 to 1.461 million last year.

Talent admission schemes have injected a diverse population into Hong Kong. Over 410,000 approved applications have been processed since 2022, with nearly 300,000 involving mainland talent and over 110,000 involving non-mainland passport holders. These individuals are not merely filling job vacancies; they are new stakeholders in the city’s future.

As newcomers settle into their lives in Hong Kong, they will expect a place that offers quality education for their children, accessible healthcare services, reliable transportation systems, and community amenities. However, opportunities abound but living costs are prohibitively high.

The Northern Metropolis project presents an opportunity to rethink urban planning in Hong Kong. Policymakers should strive to create a city responsive to the needs of its residents, regardless of origin or nationality. Rather than simply replicating existing models, they must consider what kind of city these newcomers will expect and demand.

However, Dr. Lee’s call for informed decision-making through policy addresses is timely, given Hong Kong’s changing demographics and shifting economic landscape. The city must also address pressing issues like housing affordability, education quality, and social services as it navigates complex changes.

The Consequences of Inaction

The implications of failing to plan for a dynamic population are far-reaching. Rising living costs, overcrowding, and decreased quality of life will drive away not just talent but also long-time residents who feel marginalized by the influx of newcomers. A city that neglects its own residents’ needs risks creating social and economic divisions that can only be exacerbated by the pressure of growth.

Hong Kong’s unique position as a cross-border hub demands innovative thinking about urban planning, public services, and community engagement. By embracing this challenge, policymakers can create a more inclusive, responsive city that truly benefits all its residents – regardless of nationality or background.

The Northern Metropolis project may be Hong Kong’s most significant development initiative in decades, but it also presents an existential question: what kind of population does the city want to have?